Friday, July 27, 2012

FOW- Gas prices etc.....


Generally, a good post. But I think the real difficult part lies in the last bit: These are not black and white issues. In fact it is mostly grey. There are a lot of people who blame this one thing or that, or propose this idea as a "simple solution", whether it be fusion, or geothermal, or eliminate all transport, or kill most of humanity with a a pathogen...yes, I've heard or read all those simple solutions. If there was such a thing we would would have done it by now. The world looks the way it does for a complex reason, and black or white or simplistic answers to problems won't cut it. We have had cheap energy for 150 years and this is the one thing which has allowed humanity to grow to such gigantic numbers. It is energy expressed in agriculture, residential heating and cooling, preservation of food, transportation of food. and so on. All of it depended on cheap energy to get to this level. The OP cites the situation in Brazil, but the facts are that Brazil has truly enormous oil reserves, and they are rapidly gaining access to them. They also live in a tropical and subtropical latitude, making sugar cane an excellent crop year round. It's true over 50% of Brazilian cars are made for ethanol, but if they did not have oil they would be a big importer
The U.S. does not have the potential for that kind of ethanol. The chemistry of the energy balance just does not work out very well, and won't until cellulosic ethanol is perfected on a big scale. And, with the recent midwest drought, we can see corn ethanol is not a viable long term solution. Most people also don't know the US has a gigantic pipeline network running silently and efficiently 24/7, and that ethanol cannot be shipped through those existing lines because of corrosion problems, so it must be shipped by rail. Since and including the year 2000 there have been 8 pipeline spills reported too the NTSB, and 88 train derailment or accidents reported in the same period, so things get even murkier getting into this energy transportation question.
And to see a really interesting chart, see below, what happened to the price of oil 2 weeks after 9/11. This incredible spike in oil was brought to you by the Bush administration as they prepared to invade Iraq. That rise in oil cost Americans trillions of dollars, and that was earned money, not just printed. This is another aspect of where we are with energy. Thanks for reading.

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